{"id":6212,"date":"2019-07-09T15:28:02","date_gmt":"2019-07-09T15:28:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sh118.global.temp.domains\/~igsgorg\/lusophonegoa\/?p=6212"},"modified":"2019-07-09T15:34:07","modified_gmt":"2019-07-09T15:34:07","slug":"bolsonaro-is-not-likely-to-be-as-involved-with-brics-as-his-predecessors-were","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lusophonegoa.org\/pt\/2019\/07\/bolsonaro-is-not-likely-to-be-as-involved-with-brics-as-his-predecessors-were\/","title":{"rendered":"Bolsonaro n\u00e3o se empenhar\u00e1 no BRICS, como fizeram seus predecessores"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Article of Aurobindo Xavier* published in Scroll.in with the Title<\/p>\n

“What does Brazil\u2019s new president-elect hold for India, China and the future of Brics?”<\/strong><\/p>\n

On October 28, far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party was declared the winner of Brazil\u2019s presidential election, having obtained 55.1% of the votes cast. His opponent, Fernando Haddad of the left-wing Workers\u2019 Party, bagged 44.9% of the vote. Bolsonaro, 63, will take over as president on January 1. Despite scarce campaign resources and no support from major parties, more than 57 million voters supported the former Army captain\u2019s promise to fix Brazil\u2019s ills: massive corruption, out of control crime and a faltering economy.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

His election, however, sent alarm bells ringing among certain sections of Brazilian society, especially minorities. During his election campaign, he made several remarks that were deemed misogynist, racist and homophobic. He criticised descendants of Afro-Brazilian slaves, implying that they were lazy. He said he would not rape a certain female fellow lawmaker in Congress because she was not\u00a0worthy\u00a0of it. He also said that if he had a gay son, he would be unable to love him and would \u201cprefer that he died in an accident\u201d. He has also targeted Brazil\u2019s\u00a0indigenous people\u00a0frequently.<\/p>\n

Immediately after his victory, Bolsonaro said he would try to pacify Brazil. \u201cThis country belongs to all of us, Brazilians by birth or by heart, a Brazil of diverse opinions, colors and orientations,\u201d he said, and vowed that his government would be \u201cconstitutional and democratic\u201d.<\/p>\n

Brazil is the most populous nation in South America and the world\u2019s eight-largest economy. Bolsonaro\u2019s ascent as the country\u2019s president therefore also has global implications. Following his election, experts say that the leader \u2013 who is inexperienced in matters of foreign affairs and trade \u2013 will follow a radically different foreign policy from that of his predecessors, as this is what he emphasised during his campaign. Among other things, therefore, his presidency is expected to bring about a dramatic shift in relations with India and China as well as the power politics of BRICS \u2013 an association of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.<\/p>\n

What should India expect?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brazil is one of India\u2019s most important trading partners in the entire Latin America and Caribbean region. Trade between the two countries amounted to\u00a0$7.60 billion\u00a0in 2017. While India imports cane sugar, copper ore and soyabean oil from Brazil, it exports diesel, organic chemicals, pharmaceutical products, nuclear reactors, boilers and machinery to the South American nation. Bilateral trade between the two countries grew 35% in 2017 despite the fact that a negligible quantity of diesel, which used to form between 40%-50% of India\u2019s total exports to Brazil, was exported during that period.<\/p>\n

As in India, agriculture is the strength of the Brazilian economy. Both countries are therefore competitive in similar areas of agriculture. Brazil is projected to be the largest beef exporter in the world in 2018 followed by India, Australia and the United States. Brazil also is the leading exporter of chicken meat. This is likely to influence commercial relations between India and Brazil during Bolsonaro\u2019s term.<\/p>\n

The president-elect is a strong proponent of agribusiness \u2013 one of the pillars of his political platform \u2013 and has called for a new, pro-business approach in this sector. Much of the support for him comes from those referred to as the \u201cruralistas\u201d \u2013 the nation\u2019s farmers and agribusiness sector \u2013 who dominate Brazil\u2019s political agenda. The merger of the Ministry of Agriculture with that of the Environment Ministry, proposed by Bolsonaro, could change the supply curve for several commodities, especially beef and soybeans. Bolsonaro\u2019s promises to drastically roll back environmental regulations for agriculture, including speeding up deforestation, converting forests into range and cropland could dramatically affect agribusiness globally, including in India. This means opportunities to enhance bilateral investments in agribusiness between India and Brazil could be difficult in the future, and rebalancing agribusiness with other sectors will probably not be easy.<\/p>\n

But Fausto Godoy, former consul general of Brazil in Mumbai, feels the leaders of the two countries will get along well. \u201cAs far as India is concerned, even though there has not been any specific indication so far, it is important to highlight the similarities of Bolsonaro\u2019s thoughts and agenda with Narendra Modi\u2019s,\u201d said Godoy. \u201cBoth pay much attention to the development of the private sector, to de-bureaucratisation of the public sector, and [to] combat corruption.\u201d He added: \u201cModi\u2019s thoughts and \u2018style\u2019 look very much like Bolsonaro\u2019s,\u201d he said. \u201cSo I think as far as personal contacts are concerned, they will get along very well.\u201d<\/p>\n

Blow to BRICS?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Some hints of the likely direction Bolsanaro\u2019s foreign policy will take came at a press conference on October 20, where he compared himself to US President Donald Trump. \u201cIt is about aiming for a great Brazil like that \u2013 the way Trump wants America to be great,\u201d he said. He also seems enamoured by another of Trump\u2019s statements, delivered at the United Nations in September: \u201cWe reject the ideology of globalism and we embrace the doctrine of patriotism.\u201d Experts therefore expect that Bolsonaro, who is being referred to in the international media\u00a0as the Trump of the Tropics, is not likely to be as involved with BRICS as his predecessors were.<\/p>\n

Godoy pointed out that during his electoral campaign, Bolsanaro indicated that he would abandon the so-called \u201cleftist\u201d agenda of the Workers\u2019 Party towards a liberal one. \u201cIn this context, some previous alliances will be reviewed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

China is a major source of foreign investment for Brazil. It is also its largest trading partner. But in past speeches, the president-elect has repeatedly warned of Chinese investors taking control of strategic natural resources in Brazil\u2019s mining and energy sectors. \u201cChina isn\u2019t buying in Brazil, China is buying Brazil,\u201d said Bolsonaro in August.<\/p>\n

Godoy, however, added that it was difficult to predict which way Bolsonaro\u2019s foreign policy would go\u00a0<\/strong>though \u201ca firm diversion\u201d was likely. \u201cSo far, there has not been any specific signal from the new president concerning BRICS,\u201d he said. \u201cOne thing is sure, though: his closest allies are in favor of abandoning the \u2018South-South\u2019 axis. Of the BRICS countries, only China has been highlighted so far, at first in a negative and cautious mood, now in a positive one. And it could not be otherwise, since China is Brazil\u2019s largest trade partner.\u201d<\/p>\n

*Aurobindo Xavier is the president of the Lusophone Society of Goa.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a9 2018 Scroll.in<\/strong><\/p>\n

https:\/\/scroll.in\/article\/900721\/what-does-brazils-new-president-elect-hold-for-india-china-and-the-future-of-brics<\/a><\/p>\n

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